The philosopher Isaiah Berlin wrote that there are two kinds of experts; hedgehogs and foxes.
Hedgehogs have figured out how the world works. They boast a focused central view, strong convictions and ideological leanings. They are certain about what they know and prone to argue in black and white terms. George W. Bush is a hedgehog as are most of news television’s expert-class, those Jim Cramer/Bill O’Reilly types called upon by the networks for opinions on the issues de jour. Certainty is their stock, and as this is a very compelling quality in uncertain times, hedgehogs are often very successful people.
Many high profile search consultants are hedgehogs. They are self-confident individuals with strong views about their profession and how to do it well. Their mental models are straight forward, simple and concise. They ‘know’ how to find winners who will thrive in your company and they are constantly in sell-mode whether it is themselves to clients, their clients to candidates or their candidates to clients. Hedgehog search consultants scoff at those who ‘over-think’ a business that in its essence is nothing more than finding ‘A’ players for their clients.
Foxes see the world differently. They are more cautious and likely to adjust their views to changing information. They are more pragmatic, prone to self-assessment and doubt, and more inclined to see nuance and subtlety all around them. To foxes, life has far too many moving parts to be squeezed into one grand theory of how it all works. Foxes dive into the well of complexity where they look for understanding and meaning. Barack Obama presents himself to be a fox.
Executive search foxes hand-craft each search using the materials and tools at their disposal. They do not sell and tell, but rather ask, probe and discuss. They see broad themes to companies and their issues but eschew hard rules or facile solutions. Students of their field, they share lessons learned, the experiences of others, successes and failures, and processes and tools that help in effective decision-making. And as they try to reward clients with good search work, they also work to earn the trust of candidates through honesty and forthrightness. Earned trust lubricates much of their search success.
Philip Tetlock has studied both foxes and hedgehogs. In researching his book on political judgment he tracked some 82,000 predictions by so-called experts who self-selected themselves as either foxes or hedgehogs. For example, fox-like experts agree that "politics is more cloudlike than clocklike" and that, "even after making up my mind, I am always eager to consider different options". Similarly, foxes disagree with statements like "it is annoying to listen to someone who cannot seem to make up his or her mind" or "I dislike questions that can be answered in many ways." Needless to say, hedgehogs take the positions nearly opposite those of foxes.
Tetlock found that on average the predictions of experts were only slightly better than random guesses. Furthermore, the data did not vary by specialization (ie. political pundits versus business experts), education (PhDs versus high school graduates), age or gender. It did vary however between hedgehogs and foxes. Simply said, foxes get things right more often than hedgehogs.
Complex systems are by their very nature emergent and unpredictable. In executive search, companies are opaque, their individual needs contextual, and individuals who thrive in one will often fail in another. And no battery of psychological tests, competency models, or magic interview questions can ever guarantee anything. And this is why hedgehogs get themselves in trouble for their certainty is built on assumptions about how people and companies behave and interact. Their models depend on predictability, linearity and simplicity. But as anyone who watched Jim Cramer struggle to explain to John Stewart why he and his peers missed the financial meltdown, life is never that predictable. So while they may pile up more hits on Google, hedgehogs invariably make more mistakes when the complex world fails to align with their models.
Someone once said that ‘the fox knows many things, the hedgehog knows one big thing’. Until such time as that one big thing solves the puzzle of marital bliss (corporate or for that matter personal) it is wise to be wary of executive search hedgehogs who peddle perfect solutions built on imperfect information. Your chances of a successful search is much better with the foxes.
Robert Hebert is Managing Partner of Toronto-based executive search firm StoneWood Group (www.stonewoodgroup.com). He can be reached @ rhebert@stonewoodgroup.com or at 416.365.9494x777
Looking for a dynamic HR role? Stay away from the entrepreneurial tech sector.
January 1, 2012
In a recent survey of HR graduate students, the technology sector rated among the most coveted destinations to ply their trade. It is viewed as a world of innovative people, technologies and approaches where progressive talent management, OB/OD and related HR work awaits.
The Cry to Replace RIM's CEOs – A Truly Dumb Idea
October 13, 2011
Leaving aside the recent service outages, the shellacking of RIM in the press is a tad surreal to behold.
For the few Luddites not familiar with the firm, Research in Motion is the successful Canadian smart phone pioneer with revenues of $20bb per year, no debt and cash in the bank. They manufacture products that remain popular around the world and continue to boast technological innovations unmatched by any competitor. Their most recently launched smart phone devices have been well reviewed and appear to be selling well. And though the company's first version of its new tablet, the Playbook, has room for improvement, it is a promising piece of technology.
Context: When Companies Confuse Start-up Experience for Start-up Experience
October 7, 2011
I had the occasion this week to chat with an entrepreneur still licking his wounds from a stalled startup venture. His tale is a reminder of how easily companies misunderstand organizational context when hiring. For startups, such a misunderstanding can be fatal.
The CEO Hiring Practices at HP
October 3, 2011
The press tells us that Hewlett Packard is the largest technology company in the world with revenues of $126bb. Impressive as those numbers may appear, they do not seem to impress HP's Board of Directors. You see they do not believe that any of the firm's 324,600 employees are capable of leading it. Not one person. Not this year or last year when CEO changes were made. In fact they were apparently not capable six years ago or even eleven years ago when CEO changes were also made. But before summarily indicting the firm's succession planning/leadership development programs, it is useful to consider the track record of the external candidates who were considered better choices than the firm's internal candidates. This analysis decidedly shifts the spotlight to the competence of Hewlett Packard's Board of Directors.
The Folly of Believing What You Read
September 19, 2011
Some time ago we posted a blog titled ‘So you REALLY want to be a CEO?' which looked at the human costs of climbing the upper rungs of the management ladder. The blog was based on a series of articles immediately following the ‘resignation' of Pfizer CEO Jeff Kindler. All of these articles presented a cautionary tale of life in the fast lane, the long hours, the extensive global travel, and the shareholder pressures that accompany an uncooperative stock price. They also spoke poignantly of the physical and emotional toll that such unrelenting pressure took on the Pfizer CEO who eventually resigned in order to attend to his family and health. As it turns out however, much of this narrative may not have been true
Before sending us your resume (and then getting frustrated with us) ask who we work for
July 25, 2011
A friend of mine is a trustee in bankruptcy. As his title suggests, he and his firm serves those contemplating the ‘cleansing' process of personal bankruptcy. Potential customers compare service providers, select one, and then pay the chosen firm a fee to initiate and manage the ensuing process on their behalf. However, as soon as the relief-seeking customer signs on the dotted line, the trustee's allegiance shifts to the creditors for whom they then seek to maximize debt recovery. This shift in who works for whom must be a tad unsettling for people who already have a heap of problems and stress on their hands.
What Dating Services Can Teach Companies About Hiring
June 1, 2011
Executive-level hiring is a decidedly aspirational endeavor. Organizations idealize their workplace cultures, select for attributes that will fit into those romanticized environments, and then immerse unsuspecting hires into their ice-cold reality of their works-in-progress.
How to Survive a Startup - by Jill Ram
April 20, 2011
If you're an executive and you're thinking of joining a start-up, know what stage of a start-up to join. If the company is in its first year or so, don't expect to make significant changes. If you join after the company is somewhat established and mistakes have been made and learned from, you'll likely be more successful from the outset. If the founder has stepped aside, well, by then, the company is likely not considered a start-up anymore. It won't be functioning like a big company yet, and it won't have all the structure in place that it needs, but it will be run with more practicality and with less emotion. Timing is everything so choose it well.
Good News for the Old, Overqualified and Overlooked
March 18, 2011
It is expected that a significant percentage of the baby boomer generation will drive right past the Freedom 55 highway exit. For many the goal of early retirement will have proven to be unattainable hype, while for others the ups and downs of working will appear more attractive than the prospects of working up and down the local lawn bowling leadership board.
Pressed for time? Blame those Benedictine Monks.
February 24, 2011
It is among the principal reasons candidates tell us they are open to consider a change in employers. They are tethered to it, yet somehow it still flees. It is time, the most precious of resources, and for many harried executives they want some of it back.
Though their relationship with time may be strained, it is worth pointing out that it was not always this way. In his fascinating book Time Wars, Jeremy Rifkin chronicles the evolution of our modern relationship with time. He points out that in traditional agrarian and pastoral cultures, time was a very naturalistic notion maintained in cyclical, repetitive, biological and even sacred terms. The ‘passing of time' was cued via the changing seasons, biological lifecycles and lunar patterns and thus, the cadence and tempo of those societies were finely tuned to the cyclical rhythms of their physical environments. As he states, "Our early ancestors coveted the circle, perceiving time as eternal return, a ceaseless repetition of an endless cycle of birth, life, death, and rebirth". Since these cyclical rhythms could neither be accelerated, nor altered, the cadence of these societies' was natural and harmonious.
Looking For a Search Consultant? Go For a Real Fox !
August 5, 2009